Service Plays Thursday 9/9/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Handicapping Talent

Betting The NFL Based On Ability

The NFL grades their talent differently than college football. Here we have scouts using a sophisticated grading system that has very specific details relating to the particular player. The information breaks down this way, blue, red and purple for grades and I utilize it in this manner: Blue is worth three points, red worth two points and purple earns a single digit.

When a team has a blue player, this means this individual is a proven All-Pro caliber player, generally year after year. This group would include a Drew Brees, Chris Johnson and a Larry Fitzgerald along with many others at all the different positions on the gridiron.

A red player is someone who would be the next level down, a very good player who is capable of elevating his game to All-Pro status with the right circumstances. Others that fit this profile are overachievers like a Donald Driver of Green Bay or the Giants defensive tackle Justin Tuck, who maximize their abilities.

The purple player is an above average player, who definitely contributes to the success of his team, but lacks the star quality to be a difference-maker week-in, week-out.

NFL talent scouts also hand out grades for average and below average players, however winning in the National Football League is all about having play-makers and putting them into the right positions to achieve success.

Similar to the college football article I write, this is something I’ve worked on for years and use a variety of sources to uncover useful material for this piece. The sources are extremely reliable and consistent. I’d like to point out no personal views are used in determining a NFL players rating, just the interpretation of the material. All 22 positions on the field are graded, along the place-kickers, punters and return specialists like a Josh Cribbs, who can make a meaningful impact on a contest.

Also, no rookies are included in the study, since it would be only speculation on how they would actually perform. Similar to the college football piece, I’ve tallied what all the so-called experts think who should finish where and they are listed in the division standings.

Let’s take a look at the NFC South as an example, the home of the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. Here is the breakdown of the four teams and at the top is total points based on division strength.

NFC South - 81 Points
New Orleans (1) - 26
Carolina (3) – 23
Atlanta (2) – 21
Tampa Bay (4) – 11

Analysis –The Saints have blue-chippers like Brees and OG Jahri Evans, but where the strength of this team is all the other 10 starting players that led them to be true Super Bowl champions. The entire off-season has been about enjoying being champs, but Sean Payton is preaching no letdown. Carolina’s higher figure comes from quality offensive linemen and their dynamic duo at running back with DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart. Quarterback and weakening defense are both issues for the Panthers. Atlanta is liked by many football insiders and don’t forget, no NFC South champion has repeated in its eight years of existence, are the Falcons ready to fly? The whole fire John Gruden because he wants too much power has certainly worked out in Tampa Bay.

NFC East - 93 Points
Dallas (1) – 29
New York Giants (2) – 22
Philadelphia (3) – 21
Washington (4) -21

Analysis – Football’s most balanced division continues to roll along, just with a bit more uncertainty. Dallas should be the best club again with 4-blues, 6-reds and 5-purples, proving their depth is consistent across the entire team. The Giants are the only team in the division without a blue player, however are loaded with nine reds, showing they still have an upside if a number of them have above average seasons. Philadelphia figures to be weaker at quarterback and Washington stronger, with Donavan McNabb changing uniforms. With McNabb angry (inwardly) and coach Mike Shanahan wanting to again prove to his former employer they made a mistake in firing him, the Redskins could be very dangerous.

NFC North - 86 Points
Minnesota (1) – 34
Green Bay (2) – 27
Chicago (3) – 18
Detroit (4) -7

Analysis – With or without Brett Favre, Minnesota is still the most talented squad in the NFC. No question Favre makes them better, however this adds additional motivation for team almost making the Super Bowl, trying to show the world they can be just as good, just in a different way. Green Bay is expected to be hot on the Vikings heels with Aaron Rodgers and formidable offense. The defense was a huge surprise last season, but can Charles Woodson still play at such a high level in his 13th season and how much will Johnny Jolly’s loss hurt DC Don Capers crew? Word out of Chi-town is the Bears have to make the playoffs or no love will be given to Lovie Smith, having to find work somewhere else. The mess Matt Millen left behind will take more time to fix than the city’s auto industry.

NFC West - 68 Points
Arizona (2) – 24
San Francisco (1) – 22
St. Louis (4) – 13
Seattle (3) -9

Analysis – With no Kurt Warner, many believe the balance of power will shift towards San Francisco in the NFC West, though Arizona still has a great deal of firepower offensively, it’s a matter of how quickly Matt Leinart and reshuffled offensive line comes together. The Cardinals will also be breaking in a number of new defensive players. Alex Smith finally showed everyone he is the 49ers best signal caller, which happened to correspond by offensive line offering protection and having weapons on the perimeter to throw to. After 5-1 record in the division a season ago, San Fran feels ready to take charge. Seattle and St. Louis fit the bill as also-rans, with the Seahawks having more average players on their squad and the Rams having a few players that could blossom into stars, yet with more than enough others slots to fill.

AFC East - 81 Points
New York Jets (1) – 28
New England (2) – 24
Miami (3) – 18
Buffalo (4) -11

Analysis – In the Chinese calendar, this year is known as the Year of the Jet. OK, not really, but head coach Rex Ryan and enough prognosticators are picking New York to show up in Dallas as the AFC Super Bowl representative. It is well justified with the likes of Derrelle Revis and Nick Mangold and QB Mark Sanchez has stellar supporting cast with Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards on the flanks. Coach Ryan will continue to push the blitz button and has another strong corner in Antonio Cromartie. Bill Belichick and New England are trying to rebuild on the run and though this team is not a true Super Bowl contender, they still have Tom Brady and a developing crew of youngsters. Miami overachieved in 2008, came back to reality last season and wants to think they are poised to be the upstart in the AFC. The hiring of Chan Gailey as head coach in Buffalo has drawn as much excitement as a bran muffin.

AFC North - 97 Points
Baltimore (1) – 36
Pittsburgh (2) – 28
Cincinnati (3) – 18
Cleveland (4) -15

Analysis – The Baltimore Ravens appeared loaded. The Ravens have the highest ranking in the NFL with better than average players and they have a whopping dozen “red” players. (No other team has 10) With Ben Roethlisberger expected to miss no less than four games, this year’s more talented version of Baltimore should win the division, with its sight on bigger goals. Even with Big Ben, Pittsburgh doesn’t have as many studs as the Ravens; but should still be a serious postseason contender if they don’t bury themselves in a hole without Roethlisberger. Cincinnati made the playoffs last year and needs to open up the offensive playbook, after having one of the most conservative attacks in the league. The defense lost a few very good players to injury and could give even a better accounting in 2010. Carson Palmer needs career resurgence to get the ball to Chas Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. A four-game winning streak at the end of the season brought hope to Cleveland, however a new offense will take time to implement and there are more new faces on defense.

AFC South - 75 Points
Indianapolis (1) – 25
Houston (2) – 21
Tennessee (3) – 19
Jacksonville (4) -10

Analysis – Anybody want to bet against Indianapolis not win the AFC South? The Colts were the winningest team of the decade at 115-45, with Peyton Manning the one constant. Indianapolis epitomizes what has been the salary-cap era of football, have stars where you to need them and fill in the rest with good lower salaried employees. It’s hard to find fault with a team that was 14-0 before giving away last two games for losses and made it to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, at least three games should have been losses and the most important parts of the offensive coaching staff have been changed. Houston knows they have to make the playoffs this year and a defeat of the Colts might be enough to propel them over the top, if the running game improves and the secondary is more consistent. Tennessee is somewhere in the middle, not rebuilding, but not a finished product. How they play in games decided by seven or less points will determine final record. With a losing record, small fan-base and ordinary players manning several spots on the roster, coach Jack Del Rio needs a miracle.

AFC West - 66 Points
San Diego (1) – 22
Denver (3) – 18
Oakland (4) – 14
Kansas City (2) -12

Analysis – Just a few years ago, San Diego arguably had the best 53 man roster (includes practice squad members) in the NFL. Somebody was injured, the drop off was hardly noticeable. Not anymore and the Chargers can be thankful they can mask these weaknesses playing in such a dreadful division. Denver might have a few more players than either Kansas City or Oakland, but last season’s 2-8 close to the year might be a view of what is to come in Broncos-land. The Chiefs are in the early stages of recovery and need a few more stimulus packages (good drafts) to be back in division contention. The Raiders are forgettable until they prove otherwise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Preview

Vikings vs. Saints Preview

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night at the Superdome, the site of January's epic NFC title game between the Vikings and Saints. These two clubs will see other for the first time since New Orleans' 31-28 overtime victory, as the Saints later captured their initial Super Bowl win over the Colts. Of course, the drama was built up in the offseason thanks to the hemming and hawing from Vikings' quarterback Brett Favre.

We've seen this story before with Favre, who has been indecisive on whether or not to return for another season. It's difficult to believe that the future Hall-of-Famer was going to hang it up after his critical interception at the end of regulation in the NFC championship, one of five Minnesota turnovers. The Vikings cashed as four-point underdogs, while the 'over' of 54 hit with five minutes remaining in regulation thanks to an Adrian Peterson touchdown.

The Vikings outgained the Saints, 475-257, while Minnesota held the ball for nearly nine minutes longer and committed four less penalties. The key for New Orleans was not only being opportunistic on the defensive side with five takeaways, but also committing just one turnover.

Fast-forward to the preseason, the Vikings were unsure if Favre would come back for a second season, as Minnesota played its first game without the veteran, beating St. Louis, 28-7. Favre returned in time for a 15-10 defeat at San Francisco, followed by home victories over the Seahawks and Broncos. The Vikings managed a 3-1 ATS mark in the preseason, with the lone ATS loss to the Niners on the final play of the game.

The Saints split their four preseason contests, as both wins came at home over Houston and San Diego. The New Orleans offense exploded for 74 points in those two victories, while easily covering short numbers. Sean Payton's team lost a pair of road games by identical 27-24 scores at New England and Tennessee, as the Saints' repeatedly lit up the scoreboard throughout the preseason.

New Orleans saw plenty of high totals last season with its dynamic offense, as 12 games were listed at 50 or higher. Getting to that number wasn't always easy with the Saints going 5-7 to the 'over' in those contests, including a 4-3 'over' mark at the Superdome. The Vikings played just three games with a total of 48 or higher, finishing 2-1 to the 'over.'

Minnesota profited last season with an 11-6-1 ATS record, including a 5-4 ATS ledger on the road. Brad Childress' squad was listed as an underdog twice, cashing in the loss at New Orleans, while losing outright both SU/ATS at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Vikings have compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four season openers, as Minnesota split a pair of road prime-time games at Washington and Green Bay.

New Orleans was a solid play last season when it did not lay double-digits, owning an 8-4 ATS record. The Saints were just 5-5 ATS at the Superdome, but that did include three ATS losses as 10-point favorites or more. Under Payton, the defending Super Bowl Champs are a reliable 3-1 SU/ATS in season openers, with the lone defeat coming in a 2007 blowout at Indianapolis, 41-10.

Since 2003, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the Thursday night season opener. For the exception of the Redskins edging the Jets in 2003, for the last six seasons the reigning champion has hosted this Thursday night game. The champ usually delivers for pointspread purposes, going 4-1-1 ATS, as Tennessee is the lone underdog to cash, doing so as a 6 ½-point underdog at Pittsburgh last season in a 13-10 overtime loss.

The Saints opened up as a 3 ½-point favorite in late April, but the line moved up gradually during the offseason. When the news broke that Favre would retire, New Orleans was laying six points at several books. However, that was short-lived when Favre decided to come back, and the Vikings have settled as a five-point underdog on many outlets. The total opened in the 51 ½-52 range, but that number has slipped down to 48-48 ½ over the last four months in a majority of books.

The season kicks off at 8:30 PM EST on Thursday night, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auburn At Mississippi State: What Bettors Need To Know

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+2.5, 54)

Auburn and Mississippi State, two rising programs in the tough SEC West, collide Thursday night in Starkville.

The Tigers, under second-year coach Gene Chizik, are further along in their rise than the Bulldogs under their second-year coach Dan Mullen. But according to oddsmakers, the gap between the two teams is slim.

THE SPREAD

Auburn opened around a 3-point road favorite, but the number didn’t stay there for long. Most sports books were offering Auburn -2 or -2.5 by Tuesday. Bodog.com even dropped it down to -1.5 on Tuesday, but it was hovering back around -2 on Wednesday.
Mississippi State went 3-1 ATS as a home dog in SEC play last season. Auburn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.

THE TOTAL

The total was at 54 on Wednesday, down slightly from where it opened at 54.5. The two up-tempo offenses combined to score 73 points in last season’s 49-24 Auburn blowout at Jordan Hare Stadium. In contrast, Auburn won 3-2 in 2008 in Starkville, Tommy Tuberville’s last year.

The Tigers averaged 33.3 points a game last season, but just 20.75 on the road. Mississippi State scored 22.45 points per game at home against SEC competition last year.

The under is 16-7-2 in Auburn’s last 25 conference games.

The weather isn’t expected to play a role in the game.

QUARTERBACK MATCHUP

Mullen is sticking with a two-quarterback system, featuring highly-touted freshman pocket-passer Tyler Russell and the more mobile and more experienced Chris Relf. Russell was spectacular in his debut, completing 13 of 16 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 49-7 drubbing of Memphis. Relf also had an effective performance, completing 7 of 9 passes for 116 with a touchdown and an interception.

Auburn also got an impressive debut from its new quarterback, former Florida Gator Cameron Newton. After backing up Tim Tebow for two seasons, Newton ended up in junior college, where he won a national title last year. He chose Auburn over Mississippi State to finish his collegiate career. Tiger fans are ecstatic about that decision, after watching Newton run for 171 yards and two touchdowns and throw for three more in a 52-26 win over Arkansas State last week.

LINE OF SCRIMMAGE MATCH-UP

Auburn’s offensive line averages 313 pounds and features four returning senior starters, including all-conference tackle Lee Ziemba . Mississippi State returns two starters on a defensive line that averages 284 pounds.

Mississippi State’s offensive line returns four starters and averages 302 pounds Auburn returns two starters on a defensive line that averages 281 pounds.

INJURIES AND SUSPENSIONS

Auburn: Senior linebacker Craig Stevens, last season’s co-defensive MVP, was suspended for the season-opener against Arkansas State. Chizik has not commented on Stevens’ status for Thursday’s game; Freshman receiver Trovon Reed, a big-play threat, is expected to make his debut Thursday, after missing the opener with a bruised knee cap.

Mississippi State: No significant injuries.

KICKING GAME

Advantage Auburn. Senior kicker Wes Byrum made 15 of 16 field goals and 54 of 54 extra points.

For the Bulldogs, seniors Sean Brauchle and Derek DePasquale split duties. Brauchle missed his only attempt against Memphis.

Last season: Auburn 49, Mississippi State 24

Auburn shredded the Bulldogs’ defense for 589 total yards, 390 coming on the ground. Seven starters return from that offense, which put up the most points by an Auburn team in an SEC game since 2003.

Relf completed 5 of 11 passes for 77 yards, with two interceptions, one of which was returned touchdown. Relf did find some room on the ground and finished with 52 yards on seven carries.

It was Mississippi State’s eighth loss in last nine meetings with Auburn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Betting Preview

Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

SEC West college football betting action gets started this season on Thursday night, as the Auburn Tigers take the short trip to Starkville to battle with the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Tigers might not have covered the NCAA football odds last week against the Arkansas Red Wolves, but the offense shining so brightly was a tremendous boost for a program that has lacked solid ‘O’ in recent years. QB Cam Newton, a former Florida Gator recruit had one heck of a debut for his new team. He threw for 186 yards and three TDs and added another 171 yards and two scores on the ground. RB Michael Dyer also had a nice game, rushing for 95 yards and a TD. The forgotten member of the offense might be in for a bigger role this week, as RB Onterio McCalebb had 76 yards on just nine rushes. Auburn ended up totaling 608 yards. The only drawback was the defense, which conceded 366 yards and 26 points. The passing attack did concede 323 yards, but the DL put all sorts of pressure on Red Wolves’ QB Ryan Aplin. The rush ‘D’ was great, holding Arky State to just 1.2 yards per carry.

The question for Mississippi State this week is whether the Bulldogs are ultimately that good, or if the Memphis Tigers are that bad. Memphis was nearly shut out for the entire 60 minutes, and its defense was that atrocious as well. MSU looks as though it has found a new signal caller. There still hasn’t necessarily been a decision yet as to whether QB Tyler Russell or QB Chris Relf will be starting on Thursday night, but Russell certainly showed that he was the future of this program last week. Relf was yanked after going 7-for-9 for 116 yards with a TD and an INT. Russell came in and capitalized on his first chance to shine, as the freshman went 13-of-16 for 256 yards with four TDs. Give both RBs Vick Ballard and LaDarius Perkins a lot of credit as well. The two only combined for 15 carries, but they did pick up 117 yards and two TDs. Memphis only ended up with 237 total yards of offense for the day, averaging just 2.0 yards per carry. Many of those yards came in garbage time.

Though Mississippi State hasn’t win a game against the Tigers in Starkville since 2000, this is a vintage “upset” spot. The Bulldogs aren’t the ranked team in this battle, but they are favored, and more often than not, the team in that situation ends up coming out on top. We think that Russell is really going to shine in what should be a great showcase game for ESPN on Thursday night. Back the Bulldogs on the college football lines.

Selection: Mississippi State Bulldogs -1.5


Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Temple Owls

For years, the Temple Owls have been doormats in the MAC. Now, they have their chance to divide and conquer one of the biggest behemoths in the conference on Thursday night in college football betting action as they take on the Central Michigan Chippewas.

This clearly isn’t the same CMU team of recent years. If for no other reason, QB Dan LeFevour has moved on and is now with the Chicago Bears. The mentality of the team has changed as well with Butch Jones leaving the team to go coach at Cincinnati. However, if what the Chippies’ faithful saw last week is an indication of what’s to come, this could be a great season in Mount Pleasant nonetheless. Central Michigan had a better use of its running game in last week’s 33-0 win over the Hampton Pirates. Both RB Paris Cotton and RB Carl Volny rushed for TDs on the day, and the two combined for 146 yards. QB Ryan Radcliff, making his first career start, went 20-of-34 for 242 yards with a TD. The defense for CMU held the Pirates to just 129 total yards of offense and 11 first downs.

Even though it flew under the radar last week, Temple scored one of the craziest NCAA football betting covers that you’ll ever see. With just 0:03 remaining, the Owls booted a 43 yard field goal that appeared to win the game 25-24. However, on the ensuing kickoff, Justin Gildea recovered a fumble and raced it 26 yards for the score that gave Temple a 31-24 ‘W’. It was the first, and only time over the course of the game that the Owls were covering the Villanova Wildcats on the day. The win avenged last season’s loss to the FCS powerhouses. RB Bernard Pierce put forth a respectable day, but he’d be the first to tell you that he should’ve done a lot more with his 20 carries than account for 75 yards. The passing attack was fantastic at times, as QB Chester Stewart hooked up with WR Michael Campbell eight times for 127 yards and a TD. Stewart had 200 total yards on the day on a respectable 16-of-27 passing. Normally, holding an FCS team to 311 yards of offense is nothing to write home about, but in the case of Villanova, this would probably be one of the Top 50-60 programs in the country if it were in FBS, so that type of number is very, very respectable.
Temple has to have this game. The Owls are playing on national television in primetime, something that very, very rarely happens. Their youth will probably show at times, but they just have more talent than the Chippewas do right now. Asking Temple to win this game by at least eight is going to be tough for a team that has never beaten Central Michigan, but this is a task that the Owls should be up for.

Selection: Temple Owls -7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five MLB Betting Trends To Ride In September

As the baseball season winds down, it’s easy to fall in love with the season-long numbers.

But over the course of a 162-game campaign, things can change. A few struggling teams manage to turn things around down the stretch, while several contending squads wilt in the heat of the playoff race.

Then again, some things don’t change, like the ineptitude of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here’s a look at five profitable wagering strategies since the beginning of August – three that might surprise you and two that probably shouldn’t.

Backing The Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore's second managerial change of the 2010 season paid off bigtime for Orioles backers. Since bringing in Buck Showalter, the birds have gone 19-15 - a drastic improvement from the 32-73 record they had under Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel.

If that looks impressive, just consider that the O's have been underdogs in all but four of those games, cashing as dogs of +150 or higher eight times.

Improved pitching and defense have been the keys to the Orioles' resurgence. Baltimore allowed 5.94 runs per game in June and July, but has cut that allowance down to 4.24 runs per game since August 1. The team has gone under the total in 21 of 34 games as well.

Fading The St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis was leading the NL Central when the calendar flipped from July to August. Now, the Cards are a longshot to even make the postseason, trailing the Reds by six games in the division and five games behind the Phillies for the wildcard. St. Louis is 13-17 in its 30 games since August 1 and 6-14 in its last 20.

Cardinals faders have enjoyed the ride. St. Louis was favored in 27 of its last 30 games, falling as faves of -200 or higher on four occasions.

Backing The Houston Astros

Dealing longtime ace Roy Oswalt and struggling slugger Lance Berkman at the trade deadline might actually have lit a spark under the Astros. Houston is a sizzling 20-13 since the beginning of August and a .500 season (a pipe dream two months ago) is now looking like a possibility.

J.A. Happ, acquired from the Phillies in the Oswalt trade, has allowed three runs or less in seven of eight starts in a Houston uniform. Wandy Rodriguez has also turned things around after a brutal start to the year and Brett Myers continues to be one of the most underrated hurlers in the game.

Fading The Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are a pretty safe team to fade at the best of times, but they've been especially horrible over the past six weeks. Pittsburgh is 9-24 in its last 33 contests as it stumbles towards the worst record in the league.

The Pirates have won one (yes, one) road game since July 28. If you're not interested in laying the big chalk to bet against the Pirates on the road, think about giving the runline a shot. Even when catching 1.5 runs, Pittsburgh is 2-13 against the spread in its last 15 games away from home.

Betting The Seattle Mariners Under TheTotal

The Mariners' offense has been so bad this season, rumor has it that players are even having trouble scoring with their own wives. Seattle has been limited to three runs or less in 14 of its past 15 games. The one exception was August 25 at Boston, when the Mariners exploded for four.

An impotent offense and a solid pitching staff is an excellent formula for an under ticket,and Seattle has cashed those with great regularity. The Mariners have gone over the total in only 12 of 33 games since the beginning of August.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Thursday’s Best MLB Bets

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (+100, 9.5)

Thursday is a big day for Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Shawn Hill - it’s his first MLB start since April 2009. Hill is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery.

"It's special," Hill, who grew up in Georgetown, Ont., told reporters. "Aside from being in Toronto, which is a whole separate issue, coming back from a second Tommy John, it's been a rough two years battling injuries.

"It's special in that sense. Then, obviously, coming home to pitch in front of friends and family and getting to sleep at my parents' house."

Nothing like some home cooking before making your big comeback.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays


St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-120, 7)

St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright is getting pretty sick of losing. He has dropped four straight starts for the first time in his career. The 6-foot-7 right-hander gave up two runs on seven hits over five innings against the Cincinnati Reds in his last outing, striking out six while walking one.

"I don't like losing one game, much less four in a row," Wainwright told reporters after that game. "I won't lose again."

Pick: Atlanta Braves

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors’ Best Friend (BFF): Thursday’s Wagering Tips

Lines To Keep An Eye On

New Orleans Saints opened as 4-point favorites with the total at 54. The Saints can now be found as high as -6 and the total is hovering around 48.5.

Toronto opened as a -125 favorite against the Texas Rangers but is now listed at -120.

Weather to watch

No current weather concerns.

Who’s Hot

Chicago White Sox are 7-1 in last eight road games.

Houston is 12-4 in its last 16 overall

Who’s Not

Cincinnati is 6-21 in its last 27 meetings in Colorado.

Texas is 1-9 in Lewis’ last 10 starts.

St. Louis is 4-10 in its last 14 overall.

Vikings are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight Week 1 games.

Key Stat

5- the number of consecutive meetings between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints that have played over the posted total.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Florida Marlins starter Josh Johnson has been diagnosed with right shoulder inflammation and a mid-back strain. He will miss his scheduled start on Friday and will be re-evaluated over the next few days.

Game Of The Day

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Notable Quotable

"They are the Super Bowl champs and they deserve that respect, but we beat ourselves in that game. We have a lot stuff to work on. We've got that bad taste in our mouth, and we need to brush our teeth."

-Vikings Visanthe Shiancoe tight end on last year’s loss to New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.

Tips And Notes

New Orleans linebacker Jonathan Vilma is expected to play fully in Thursday night’s game against the Minnesota Vikings. Vilma is officially listed as probable after dealing with a groin issue for the last while.

Referee Terry McAualy and his crew plan to call a tight game between the Vikings and Saints after all the talk about Brett Favre getting beat up in last year’s NFC Championship game. But don’t expect them to bend over backwards for the Vikings. "They know what happened to Favre before and it's not that they're going to look to protect him any more or any less than they would under normal circumstances," Mike Pereira, the former director of NFL officials, told reporters.

Jorge Posada is listed as day-to-day after taking a foul tip to the mask on Tuesday. The Yankees were looking to use him as a pinch hitter on Wednesday, but decided against it after the catcher complained his head felt “foggy.”

 

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Today's NFL Picks

Minnesota at New Orleans

The Vikings look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Minnesota is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (9/5)
Game 451-452: Minnesota at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 138.490; New Orleans 141.525
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5; 49
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Under

 

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NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

Auburn at Mississippi State
The Tigers look to take advantage of a Mississippi State team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Thursday games. Auburn is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-2). Here are all of Thursday and Friday's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 301-302: Auburn at Mississippi State (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 94.279; Mississippi State 89.930
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 4 1/2; 58 1/2
Vegas Line: Auburn by 2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-2); Over

Game 441-442: Central Michigan at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 88.353; Temple 88.596
Dunkel Line: Even; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 7 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+7 1/2); Under

 

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NELLY'S GREENSHEET

Auburn (-3) MISSISSIPPI STATE
This is a huge early season SEC game and even though Auburn has won eight of the last nine meetings, these teams are much closer than most people probably perceive. Auburn gained some buzz last season with a 49- 24 win over the Bulldogs at home to move to 2-0 in Coach Chizik’s first season but Mississippi State ended up being very competitive the rest of the way. Coach Mullen is in his second year with the MSU program as well and after going 5-7 and giving scares to several national powerhouses the Bulldogs are looking to climb into the bowl picture this season. The Bulldogs allowed 589 yards against Auburn last season but the rush defense clamped down the rest of the season and this will be a key game to earn some respect heading into a brutal scheduling stretch in the SEC. Last week Mississippi State delivered a rout over rival Memphis with an efficient passing game and a very tough run defense. Auburn also put up big numbers to win last week but it was just a 12-point game in the third quarter and the defense allowed 366 yards. The Bulldogs have been dangerous home underdogs in and should be the better defensive team. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 4

TEMPLE (-8) Central Michigan
After narrowly redeeming the 2009 loss to FCS Villanova last week Temple will look to get the MAC title they nearly had last season starting off the conference season with the 2009 MAC champions. These teams did not play last season in the regular season and Temple’s loss to Ohio to close the year cost the Owls the championship match-up. Temple is the heavy favorite in the MAC this season with nearly the entire offense back and a favorable scheduling draw. In 2008 Central Michigan won by ten at home in the last meeting between these teams but there are big changes for the Chippewas this season. Central Michigan was very sharp on defense last week but Temple looks like the MAC’s best team. TEMPLE BY 10

NEW ORLEANS (-5) Minnesota (48)
NBC certainly could not have picked a more alluring TV match-up as this NFC championship rematch will have plenty of storylines and drama to discuss before the game even starts. The Vikings of course dominated the yardage in last year’s game with the Super Bowl trip on the line with a nearly 2:1 yardage advantage but five turnovers and several misplays ended the season and gave the Saints the path to their first championship. New Orleans was able to pressure QB Brett Favre last season and that should be the plan again but revenge is very possible. The difference between Minnesota and New Orleans should not be significant. VIKINGS BY 3

 

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FOOTBALL CRUSHER
POD

New Orleans Saints -5 over the Minnesota Vikings

 

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hustlethebookie
pod

Dodgers over Astros

 

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MARK LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

TEMPLE over C Michigan by 6


UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
MISSISSIPPI ST over Auburn by 6

 

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SPORTS BETTING PROFESSOR
Thursday's NCAA Picks:
As always, picks are against the point-spread and not just to win outright.

Central Michigan +8* ==>> Bet B

Mississippi St. +2

 

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BIGFELLA SPORTS

MLB & NFL PREMIUM PLAYS FOR THURSDAY
$5 MLB LA Dodgers -129 @ Bet Jamaica
$5 NFL Min Vikings +7 Buy 1pt -6 @ Bodog

THURSDAY EARLY PLAYS $1 dollar =$110

NCAAF PREMIUM PLAYS
$15 California Golden Bears -7 Buy ½
$10 FSU Seminoles +9
$10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 Buy ½
$10 Alabama Crimson Tide -11

NFL PREMIUM PLAYS
$15 GB Packers -1
$10 Atlanta Falcons -2

 

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SIXTH SENSE

No Best Bet for this game.


NEW ORLEANS -5 Minnesota 48.5

I’ll lean the way of the Saints in this game and really feel they could make this much worse on the Vikings but I’ll respect what the Vikings did to the Saints last year enough to stay off this game as a Best Bet. NEW ORLEANS 30 MINNESOTA 24

 

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TEDDY COVERS
NFL TV WINNER

New Orleans Saints

 

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Teddy Covers

Season O/U plays

1. Green bay under 10 wins
2. Miami over 8.5 wins
3. Philadelphia under 8.5 wins
4. Pittsburgh under 8.5 wins
5. Tampa over 5.5 wins

 

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Baseball Crusher

CHW (-130) over DET